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  #109501  
Old 27-06-2019, 11:41 AM
Clapham Rover Clapham Rover is offline
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Originally Posted by wedgetail View Post
The point about the Greeks fiddling the books is that they did it in an outrageous way for over thirty years before they had to pay the price. They could have bailed out of the Euro, devalued 50% and carried on in an economic terminal death spiral but decided to take the pain and find a new base for growth. What was the EU supposed to do? indulge their weakness or give a dose of medicine. Greece ****ed up their economy, they got all the reasonable help possible. Varoufakis tries to present himself as the voice of opposition to Euro oppression but he is just a representative of the parasitic Greek middle and upper classes that caused the problem.

I'm not sure why you think a 50% devaluation would have led to an economic terminal death spiral. Italy went from 7 lira to a to 2500 in 30 years and became rich in the process.

I know the personal screw-up analogy is always tempting in economics - a bit like the tories simplistic narrative that 'Labour maxed out the credit card and now we've all got to pay the bill' worked on millions in the UK but it's bullshit. Great politics (if you're rich) but ludicrous economics. Greece was playing Monopoly with Whitechapel Rd and Vine Street versus northern Europe with the rest of the properties + hotels. It was only ever going to end one way.
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  #109502  
Old 27-06-2019, 11:45 AM
Clapham Rover Clapham Rover is offline
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Originally Posted by El Aguila View Post
I agree the eurozone will have to accept the principle of redistribution, sooner or later. Preferably, sooner.
I have to say I rate the chances of this happening as zero. The way that the ECB and Germany in particular behaved through the eurozone debt crisis was disgusting, they had multiple opportunities to deal with the humanitarian and democratic crisis occurring in front of them, and caused by policies which were enriching them and they were utterly unyielding. If this could not bring about reform from within out of the goodness of their hearts, what will?
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  #109503  
Old 27-06-2019, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
Oh Raggy - showing off your rather poor comprehension skills again is see

Firstly I stated an ideal and indicated that it is highly unlikely in reality particularly with the direction of travel at the moment.

"I would prefer a united humanity working together under one trading system fighting climate change and treating every human exactly the same regardless of the randomness of their location of birth"

So which aspects do you disagree with? Would you prefer humanity to be disunited and wars and stuff to continue? Do you think a fair trading system for all is bad? Why? Do you think fighting climate change is a bad idea? Do you think discrimination based on location of birth is a good thing?

Secondly I haven't stated that the Greeks are lazy, corrupt or Bastards. I said they fiddled their books which is widely accepted.

You really need to learn to understand the words you read
A global capitalist new world order controlled by financial elites?
Sounds brilliant, I can't see that going wrong at all.
What about the pesky Cubans, Venezuelans, etc? Shall we just send the gunboats in? Make them see sense and that resistance is futile? Maybe just send the IMF in instead, they seemed to bring the Greeks into line.
Do you see capitalism as inherently preferable to other political systems? and/or demonstrably superior at dealing with climate change / environmental matters? Has its track record proven this so far?

How do you square your world vision with the role of an EU Superstate that explicitly sees China, Russia and the US as rival economic blocks and even military threats (see recent Macron and Merkel speeches).
How does this benefit the fight against climate change? Is it a case of nationalism at a traditional level is bad, but nationalism on behalf of a supra-national block is great?

Finally, we already have the perfect vehicle to cooperate on climate change - the United Nations. Global measures to combat climate change are founded on the principle of subsidiarity, that they are addressed most effectively at the lowest governmental level. Is cooperation via the UN not preferable to squaring off in supra-national blocks? How could anyone think otherwise?
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  #109504  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:00 PM
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I think both sides are right.

You cant yoke the economies of Northern and Southern Europe together with one currency

Greece is the worst run country in the EU , every single point of contact between state and person is a ******* shambles, (certainly the worst non ex-communist bloc) so it popped first , and then it was ****ed over as a warning to the others.
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  #109505  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:04 PM
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Politics.
Jeez, Louise, the euro was introduced twenty years ago. What do the next twenty years have in store? New pressures, climate change, technological change, taming of big tech, continuing industrial revolution, mass migration from the south, population change, cultural change, growth of India, continuing trade wars, American exceptionalism, China, India, who knows? We don't even really know who is going to hold the balance of power in the EU in this Parliament - liberals, conservatives, Greens, social democrats, how they will combine. We can't tell how Brexit will go. All we know for sure is geography and we trust in jaw jaw over war, war in our immediate surroundings.
If different politicians had been voted in over the last twenty years, things would have panned out differently.

That's why I like to ponder what would have happened if the Uk had joined the euro. The UK is more like Germany than it is like Portugal, I think.
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  #109506  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by nicky View Post
I think both sides are right.

You cant yoke the economies of Northern and Southern Europe together with one currency

Greece is the worst run country in the EU , every single point of contact between state and person is a ******* shambles, (certainly the worst non ex-communist bloc) so it popped first , and then it was ****ed over as a warning to the others.
Of course you can. California and Kansas and New England are all in one currency and have massively different economies.
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  #109507  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:14 PM
Hpalace Hpalace is online now
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Originally Posted by Clapham Rover View Post
Oh everyone can see it, they are studiously looking the other way I'm afraid. Politically tricky.

The money you're talking about sounds great but it is nothing like what is needed. This is partly a matter of scale - the "35% of the budget" you talk about is about 50 billion euros, spread over the whole EU (the UK gets some), whereas for comparison when the Troika now has lent the Greek govt more like 300 billion euros - and that's been just to keep it on life support. Even if every penny of EU regional aid for the last 10 years since the crisis broke had gone to Greece it wouldn't have done the job. Plus I guess every other poor region in the EU would be quite pissed off.

The other issue is that these kinds of spending plans are not designed to address the structural problems produced by the euro; they are classic aid spending - roads, railways, funky sculptures to 'attract private investment' to a deprived area etc etc. We can have a separate argument about which of these kinds of projects is likely to work or not, but they are all basically predicated on an assumption that if the infrastructure of a capital intensive economy is reproduced in an economy that lacks capital investment then bingo the two economies will compete on equal ground. But that never seems to actually happen in real life. They are not surplus redistributions, they are project grants, most of which goes to large multinational companies and although there will certainly be some net boost to the ability of receiver countries ability to consume that's neither the point of the spending, nor the best way of achieving it.
Again you focus on Greece, a nation that fiddled their finance to get in to the EU and Euro and thus had a structural and unavoidable problem from the beginning. Let's look instead at a country that didn't - Ireland for example - one on the PIGS that was meant to be bankrupt now.

Their GDP



Their Growth



Ireland have gained 44.6 billion euros form the eu and as a net recipient this is undoubtedly re-distribution. Re-distribution you just told us didn't exist.

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Originally Posted by Clapham Rover View Post
A currency union without some means of redistributing the internal surpluses and deficits will eventually bankrupt peripheral states. It's structural, unavoidable.
In addition as a nation which relies on exports (89 billion euro surplus in 2017) it enjoys free, frictionless movement of goods and services across 27 other member states many of whom have larger economies than Ireland. They also enjoy free trade with much of the world through the various FTAs the EU have set up.


Now of course had we stayed in we could have talked about more re-distribution or how that re-distribution was spent but going back to your point that the EURO will bankrupt the peripheral states and that it is structural and unavoidable due to no re-distribution? Its evidently not true. There might not be enough, in fact there probably isn't enough but the mechanism exists and has been in place for decades.

What is certain is that upon leaving the UK will no longer be a net contributor. We will cease to re-distribute our funds to the periphery states. Waving through Brexit will undoubtedly mean that the UK will cease to re-distribute anything at all to the PIGS and removes us from the future table of arguing their case for more. Isolationism isn't going to solve this - it makes the problem worse.
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  #109508  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:16 PM
Clapham Rover Clapham Rover is offline
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That's why I like to ponder what would have happened if the Uk had joined the euro. The UK is more like Germany than it is like Portugal, I think.

It would have been a disaster for the UK; we haven't made a balance of trade surplus since the 1980s (yes, including services).
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  #109509  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:22 PM
Clapham Rover Clapham Rover is offline
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
In addition as a nation which relies on exports (89 billion euro surplus in 2017) it enjoys free, frictionless movement of goods and services across 27 other member states many of whom have larger economies than Ireland. They also enjoy free trade with much of the world through the various FTAs the EU have set up.


Now of course had we stayed in we could have talked about more re-distribution or how that re-distribution was spent but going back to your point that the EURO will bankrupt the peripheral states and that it is structural and unavoidable due to no re-distribution? Its evidently not true. There might not be enough, in fact there probably isn't enough but the mechanism exists and has been in place for decades.

What is certain is that upon leaving the UK will no longer be a net contributor. We will cease to re-distribute our funds to the periphery states. Waving through Brexit will undoubtedly mean that the UK will cease to re-distribute anything at all to the PIGS and removes us from the future table of arguing their case for more. Isolationism isn't going to solve this - it makes the problem worse.
Now I think I can see why you are desperately trying to construct a theory that the eurozone has been a success for the peripheral economies when it has been the opposite. You assume that because I am criticising the eurozone's design I am therefore a hardcore Brexiteer. let me put your mind at rest I'm not. In fact I was criticising exactly this kind of binary thinking, the idea that either everything about the EU is good or everything about is bad. If Bremainers can't accept that the EU is a very flawed vessel indeed then they are going to struggle to win over many soft brexiteers (which I thought was the point?).
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  #109510  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:23 PM
Clapham Rover Clapham Rover is offline
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  #109511  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:26 PM
Hpalace Hpalace is online now
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Originally Posted by Raggy View Post
A global capitalist new world order controlled by financial elites?
Sounds brilliant, I can't see that going wrong at all.
What about the pesky Cubans, Venezuelans, etc? Shall we just send the gunboats in? Make them see sense and that resistance is futile? Maybe just send the IMF in instead, they seemed to bring the Greeks into line.
Do you see capitalism as inherently preferable to other political systems? and/or demonstrably superior at dealing with climate change / environmental matters? Has its track record proven this so far?

How do you square your world vision with the role of an EU Superstate that explicitly sees China, Russia and the US as rival economic blocks and even military threats (see recent Macron and Merkel speeches).
How does this benefit the fight against climate change? Is it a case of nationalism at a traditional level is bad, but nationalism on behalf of a supra-national block is great?

Finally, we already have the perfect vehicle to cooperate on climate change - the United Nations. Global measures to combat climate change are founded on the principle of subsidiarity, that they are addressed most effectively at the lowest governmental level. Is cooperation via the UN not preferable to squaring off in supra-national blocks? How could anyone think otherwise?
1: Where in my post did i mention captitalism?
2: Where in my post did I mention the human race working together coming about by gunboats?
3: Where in my post did I mention the EU, the USA, China, or Russia? What part of a "united humanity" do you not understand?
4: Yeah. The UN has done a great job and its all going swimmingly at the moment. What climate change? The UN sorted that ages ago

Until you can learn to read and comprehend I can't engage any further. You're as mad as a box of frogs and it's really quite boring so its best for all if I don't engage with you.
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  #109512  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:27 PM
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That has to be wrong.
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  #109513  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:30 PM
Clapham Rover Clapham Rover is offline
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That'll teach me to gob off before googling. Higher than their average to be fair.
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Old 27-06-2019, 12:31 PM
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Now I think I can see why you are desperately trying to construct a theory that the eurozone has been a success for the peripheral economies when it has been the opposite. You assume that because I am criticising the eurozone's design I am therefore a hardcore Brexiteer. let me put your mind at rest I'm not. In fact I was criticising exactly this kind of binary thinking, the idea that either everything about the EU is good or everything about is bad. If Bremainers can't accept that the EU is a very flawed vessel indeed then they are going to struggle to win over many soft brexiteers (which I thought was the point?).
Umm - I just gave you an example of a peripheral country that has benefited from the eurozone and the eu. Graphs and everything. Even a link

Of course the EU is flawed; so is the uk and most, if not all nations. I thought it was pretty much accepted on this thread that all the remainers on here think the EU could be improved and that it is far from perfect? We're still better off in it than out of it though.

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  #109515  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:32 PM
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I have to say I rate the chances of this happening as zero. The way that the ECB and Germany in particular behaved through the eurozone debt crisis was disgusting, they had multiple opportunities to deal with the humanitarian and democratic crisis occurring in front of them, and caused by policies which were enriching them and they were utterly unyielding. If this could not bring about reform from within out of the goodness of their hearts, what will?
What should they have done that was politically viable?
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Old 27-06-2019, 12:36 PM
Clapham Rover Clapham Rover is offline
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What should they have done that was politically viable?
The obvious short term answer is more or less what you'd do in the case of any personal bankruptcy - write off unpayable debts as obnoxious and make the private banks that gave those loans in the first place take the hit rather than the poorest paid Greeks.

In the long term find a solution that doesn't involve driving the peripherals bankrupt.
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Old 27-06-2019, 12:37 PM
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Clapham Rover came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietClapham Rover came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietClapham Rover came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietClapham Rover came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietClapham Rover came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietClapham Rover came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietClapham Rover came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietClapham Rover came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietClapham Rover came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietClapham Rover came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietClapham Rover came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy diet
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
We're still better off in it than out of it though.
I have literally just explained to you that I agree with this statement.
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  #109518  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:40 PM
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Raggy Raggy is offline
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Raggy came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietRaggy came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietRaggy came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietRaggy came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietRaggy came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietRaggy came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietRaggy came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietRaggy came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietRaggy came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietRaggy came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietRaggy came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy diet
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
1: Where in my post did i mention captitalism?
2: Where in my post did I mention the human race working together coming about by gunboats?
3: Where in my post did I mention the EU, the USA, China, or Russia? What part of a "united humanity" do you not understand?
4: Yeah. The UN has done a great job and its all going swimmingly at the moment. What climate change? The UN sorted that ages ago

Until you can learn to read and comprehend I can't engage any further. You're as mad as a box of frogs and it's really quite boring so its best for all if I don't engage with you.
That's OK I understand. It's best you leave once you have lost the argument.

See you then
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  #109519  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:42 PM
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CT_Palace CT_Palace is offline
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CT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is here
Woohoo! We have a winner!
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  #109520  
Old 27-06-2019, 12:42 PM
Hpalace Hpalace is online now
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Hpalace Sam the man is hereHpalace Sam the man is hereHpalace Sam the man is hereHpalace Sam the man is hereHpalace Sam the man is hereHpalace Sam the man is hereHpalace Sam the man is hereHpalace Sam the man is hereHpalace Sam the man is hereHpalace Sam the man is hereHpalace Sam the man is here
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Originally Posted by Clapham Rover View Post
I have literally just explained to you that I agree with this statement.
I know. I was just adding my two pennyworth.
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