Home | Forums | Gallery | Twitter
 
CPFC BBS  

Go Back   CPFC BBS Ľ Off Topic Ľ The Politics Forum

Notices

The Politics Forum Discussions that are wholly or mainly concerned with UK politics

Reply
 
Thread Tools
  #134461  
Old Today, 11:45 AM
RazorsEdge's Avatar
RazorsEdge RazorsEdge is offline
I am a Bad Man
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: East Devon
Posts: 12,036
Rep Power: 21474847
RazorsEdge has disabled reputation
Quote:
Originally Posted by west country boy View Post
I didn't. 100 whats?
Pounds? Unicorn?
Reply With Quote
  #134462  
Old Today, 11:52 AM
CT_Palace's Avatar
CT_Palace CT_Palace is online now
Ex-Connecticut
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Santiago, Chile
Posts: 57,943
Rep Power: 21474848
CT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by dim View Post
Disappointed 350 didn't feature in the worked example.
Itís also missing a cup of tea by my reckoning
__________________
tired of the old one, cant think of a new one
Reply With Quote
  #134463  
Old Today, 12:14 PM
Reps AJ's Avatar
Reps AJ Reps AJ is online now
Climbing for dollars
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Somewhere you're not
Posts: 19,874
Rep Power: 21474857
Reps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by west country boy View Post
I didn't. 100 whats?
Unread PMs
Reply With Quote
  #134464  
Old Today, 12:17 PM
fang's Avatar
fang fang is online now
Up On The Triangle
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 9,911
Rep Power: 21474852
fang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lama View Post
If we cannot forecast next year, then how can we forecast next decade, with any degree of reliability? And if we can't (steady on Welt, and you, Razor - I'm only hypothesising here) then what's the point in getting too worked up at this stage ?
If we leave the largest single market in the World (of which we have been members for nearly fifty years), and substitute that membership with damaging trading and customs arrangement, we really don't need a forecast to point out the consequences and we certainly don't need to wait for a decade to judge the accuracy of any forecast. The consequences are evident now.
__________________
"This is what we find, This is what we find, the hope that springs eternal, springs right up your behind"
Reply With Quote
  #134465  
Old Today, 12:18 PM
Adlerhorst's Avatar
Adlerhorst Adlerhorst is offline
Ichiro!
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Hertfordshire
Age: 44
Posts: 74,515
Rep Power: 21474854
Adlerhorst Sam the man is hereAdlerhorst Sam the man is hereAdlerhorst Sam the man is hereAdlerhorst Sam the man is hereAdlerhorst Sam the man is hereAdlerhorst Sam the man is hereAdlerhorst Sam the man is hereAdlerhorst Sam the man is hereAdlerhorst Sam the man is hereAdlerhorst Sam the man is hereAdlerhorst Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by west country boy View Post
I didn't. 100 whats?
Call them units of economic activity

Quote:
Imagine you have 100 and you get 2 every year. In ten years time you would have 120
The above is the scenario before Brexit and Covid.

Quote:
Then imagine you do something that means you only get 1.5 every year. In ten years time you would have 115.
This is the impact of lost economic activity from Brexit because we now have barriers to trade between us and our major economic trading partner.

Quote:
Alternatively imagine you have 100, then you get an immediate reduction to 90 but two years of 5 and then eight years of 2. After 10 years you have 116. You’re already richer after 10 years, and will get richer every year
This is the impact of Covid in a non-Brexit environment. It’s basically trying to show that a temporary loss of economic activity through temporary restrictions on trade (like lockdowns and the like) is less of a problem than a permanent one

Quote:
Now what we have is 100, immediately drop to 90. Maybe get two years of 5 (but in reality a bit less) and then 8 years of 1.5.
This is the combined impact of Brexit and Covid.

Obviously the numbers are not precise at all, but the point is to demonstrate why temporary restrictions to trade are less of a a concern than permanent ones. i.e. Brexit is more harmful than Covid.
__________________
The Defector looks like no other breaking pitch in the game. It is well-supinated, leaving the right hand of Fernandez at a fastball trajectory before the laws of physics cease to apply and the laws of awesome take over.
Reply With Quote
  #134466  
Old Today, 12:34 PM
Percy Dalton's Avatar
Percy Dalton Percy Dalton is offline
In a nutshell
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: The Great North Wood
Age: 66
Posts: 2,298
Rep Power: 21474844
Percy Dalton Sam the man is herePercy Dalton Sam the man is herePercy Dalton Sam the man is herePercy Dalton Sam the man is herePercy Dalton Sam the man is herePercy Dalton Sam the man is herePercy Dalton Sam the man is herePercy Dalton Sam the man is herePercy Dalton Sam the man is herePercy Dalton Sam the man is herePercy Dalton Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by fang View Post
If we leave the largest single market in the World (of which we have been members for nearly fifty years), and substitute that membership with damaging trading and customs arrangement, we really don't need a forecast to point out the consequences and we certainly don't need to wait for a decade to judge the accuracy of any forecast. The consequences are evident now.
India & China are much single larger markets than the EU. However there is no reason why we still cannot export to the EU as well as the rest of the world.

It may be harder to export to the EU due to its protectionist stance. It is certainly not the "Free Market" it pretends to be.
__________________
Peanuts only a Joey a bag.

"Why go to learn the words of fools?" Steve Marriott/Ronnie Lane
Reply With Quote
  #134467  
Old Today, 12:41 PM
Maz's Avatar
Maz Maz is offline
Semper Idem
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: A place where nothing ever happens.
Posts: 165,701
Rep Power: 21474856
Maz has disabled reputation
Quote:
Originally Posted by Percy Dalton View Post
India & China are much single larger markets than the EU. However there is no reason why we still cannot export to the EU as well as the rest of the world.

It may be harder to export to the EU due to its protectionist stance. It is certainly not the "Free Market" it pretends to be.
Other than the greatly increased costs and administration and problems of so doing? Remind me, how are our exports doing with the EU currently?
__________________
..
..G
abba Gabba Hey

.פɐppɐ פɐppɐ Hǝʎ


Reply With Quote
  #134468  
Old Today, 12:54 PM
west country boy's Avatar
west country boy west country boy is offline
jft39
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 64,148
Rep Power: 21474857
west country boy Sam the man is herewest country boy Sam the man is herewest country boy Sam the man is herewest country boy Sam the man is herewest country boy Sam the man is herewest country boy Sam the man is herewest country boy Sam the man is herewest country boy Sam the man is herewest country boy Sam the man is herewest country boy Sam the man is herewest country boy Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adlerhorst View Post
...i.e. Brexit is more harmful than Covid.
Without meaning to sound rude, that's all that needed to be said, I think.
__________________
thos. hardy wanks tramps
Reply With Quote
  #134469  
Old Today, 12:58 PM
fang's Avatar
fang fang is online now
Up On The Triangle
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 9,911
Rep Power: 21474852
fang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is herefang Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Percy Dalton View Post
India & China are much single larger markets than the EU.
They are not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Percy Dalton View Post
However there is no reason why we still cannot export to the EU as well as the rest of the world.
There are now plenty of self imposed obstacles to exporting to the EU, as evidenced by the decline in our exports. What we have lost is the ability export freely to 27 long standing partners and the rest of the world. Germany exports nearly seven times more to Germany than than we do, despite the 'impediment' of EU membership.
__________________
"This is what we find, This is what we find, the hope that springs eternal, springs right up your behind"
Reply With Quote
  #134470  
Old Today, 01:11 PM
CT_Palace's Avatar
CT_Palace CT_Palace is online now
Ex-Connecticut
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Santiago, Chile
Posts: 57,943
Rep Power: 21474848
CT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is hereCT_Palace Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Percy Dalton View Post
India & China are much single larger markets than the EU. However there is no reason why we still cannot export to the EU as well as the rest of the world.

It may be harder to export to the EU due to its protectionist stance. It is certainly not the "Free Market" it pretends to be.
It is when you're in it, you fool!
__________________
tired of the old one, cant think of a new one
Reply With Quote
  #134471  
Old Today, 01:15 PM
cantspell cantspell is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 13,893
Rep Power: 21474854
cantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lama View Post
Are there any think tanks or research organisations which have a consistently reliable track record of making 10 year economic predictions which come true. I don't mean 1 or 2 predictions that are spot on because even with random guesses, someone will always be spot on.

My instinct / gut feeling / prejudice is that there is no organisation with that sort of track record. If there isn't then forecasts of where we will be in 10 years cannot be very reliable, can they?

For example, I gather that the chancellor had about £35 billion extra to play with yesterday because forecasts of economic growth this year (forecasts which can only have been made within the last 12-18 months) proved to be wrong. If we cannot forecast next year, then how can we forecast next decade, with any degree of reliability? And if we can't (steady on Welt, and you, Razor - I'm only hypothesising here) then what's the point in getting too worked up at this stage ?
I think we can already measure what the cost of Brexit has been so far and also see the drop in trade with the EU
__________________
BHA via NSC - All the gear and no idea (6 April 2015)
Reply With Quote
  #134472  
Old Today, 01:34 PM
Lama Lama is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2021
Posts: 220
Rep Power: 1040373
Lama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mine
Quote:
Originally Posted by fang View Post
If we leave the largest single market in the World (of which we have been members for nearly fifty years), and substitute that membership with damaging trading and customs arrangement, we really don't need a forecast to point out the consequences and we certainly don't need to wait for a decade to judge the accuracy of any forecast. The consequences are evident now.
Some politicians speak with a similar degree of conviction and certainty. Thatcher and Farage, for example.
Reply With Quote
  #134473  
Old Today, 01:36 PM
Lama Lama is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2021
Posts: 220
Rep Power: 1040373
Lama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mine
Quote:
Originally Posted by cantspell View Post
I think we can already measure what the cost of Brexit has been so far and also see the drop in trade with the EU
OK. What has been the Brexit caused drop in trade ?
Reply With Quote
  #134474  
Old Today, 01:53 PM
Johnnieboy Johnnieboy is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,703
Rep Power: 21474854
Johnnieboy Sam the man is hereJohnnieboy Sam the man is hereJohnnieboy Sam the man is hereJohnnieboy Sam the man is hereJohnnieboy Sam the man is hereJohnnieboy Sam the man is hereJohnnieboy Sam the man is hereJohnnieboy Sam the man is hereJohnnieboy Sam the man is hereJohnnieboy Sam the man is hereJohnnieboy Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lama View Post
Some politicians speak with a similar degree of conviction and certainty. Thatcher and Farage, for example.
Thatcher was an actual politician who was very much in favour of the UK being a member of the single market. She was instrumental in setting it up.

Farage is a self serving hate enabler who has added nothing positive, not one thing, to the discussion, whilst lining his own pockets throughout and onwards. Everything he says is negative because that is how he enables his audience. And yet despite that, even he campaigned on the basis of us having a Norway style arrangement, ie still in the single market.

So yes, they both had conviction and certainty that it was idiocy to do what we have ended up doing
Reply With Quote
  #134475  
Old Today, 02:01 PM
cantspell cantspell is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 13,893
Rep Power: 21474854
cantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is herecantspell Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lama View Post
OK. What has been the Brexit caused drop in trade ?
ONS stats published in September 2021 stated that the value of goods exported to EU decreased by £1.7bn, whilst imports fell by £2.9bn Compared July 2021 with July 2018.

One of the reasons was declines in medicinal and pharmaceutical products, particularly hit by the need for separate regulatory approval post Brexit.
__________________
BHA via NSC - All the gear and no idea (6 April 2015)
Reply With Quote
  #134476  
Old Today, 02:05 PM
Lama Lama is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2021
Posts: 220
Rep Power: 1040373
Lama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineLama : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mine
Quote:
Originally Posted by cantspell View Post
ONS stats published in September 2021 stated that the value of goods exported to EU decreased by £1.7bn, whilst imports fell by £2.9bn Compared July 2021 with July 2018.

One of the reasons was declines in medicinal and pharmaceutical products, particularly hit by the need for separate regulatory approval post Brexit.
Thanks. Was the decline all due to Brexit? If not, what was the Brexit induced element?
Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 03:05 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.