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  #84601  
Old 24-08-2021, 11:53 PM
Hpalace Hpalace is offline
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Originally Posted by Windsor_Eagle View Post
Not to pour over the excess deaths calculations again - but the point about China was in relation to Australia. They've gone full metal authoritarian. The short-sightedness of the strategy of attempting to hide from COVID is starting to display itself. In pointing that out, I was countered with the 'ah, but they've had a lot less deaths than us'.

That is what I was responding to as a comparison with China. They're locked in a perennial position until they decide to accept the virus will enter Australia and then they'll no doubt get a pretty hefty wedge of deaths.

It's been argued for quite some time now that keeping COVID largely out of your country is one thing but when it is a global issue, what you do is delay your outcome rather than avoid it. However, that does not account for all the collateral harms and the serious dial shift in the publics relationship with the state.

Those framing civil liberties as a fringe and frivolous concern really do not appreciate the complacency of that position. Alas, the pandemic is not only something that should be judged and analysed through the lens of public health but even if we do view it through just that lens, there are no real winners and losers in this - just a range of different trade offs. What is perhaps more judgement worthy is whether different countries have pulled together a coherent and sustainable strategy.
As an interesting aside Australia lost 2.5% gdp last year. The uk a multiple thereof. They are in a better position to lock their borders and aim for zero covid to see out the storm. They did it successfully with Spanish flu and they are doing it again.
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  #84602  
Old 24-08-2021, 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Windsor_Eagle View Post
Not to pour over the excess deaths calculations again - but the point about China was in relation to Australia. They've gone full metal authoritarian. The short-sightedness of the strategy of attempting to hide from COVID is starting to display itself. In pointing that out, I was countered with the 'ah, but they've had a lot less deaths than us'.

That is what I was responding to as a comparison with China-esque response of hard authoritarianism. They're locked in a perennial position until they decide to accept the virus will enter Australia and then they'll no doubt get a pretty hefty wedge of deaths.

It's been argued for quite some time now that keeping COVID largely out of your country is one thing but when it is a global issue, what you do is delay your outcome rather than avoid it. However, that does not account for all the collateral harms and the serious dial shift in the publics relationship with the state.

Those framing civil liberties as a fringe and frivolous concern really do not appreciate the complacency of that position. Alas, the pandemic is not only something that should be judged and analysed through the lens of public health but even if we do view it through just that lens, there are no real winners and losers in this - just a range of different trade offs. What is perhaps more judgement worthy is whether different countries have pulled together a coherent and sustainable strategy.
You are right, they can't keep it out, but they can let it in when the world is in a better position i.e. lots of vulnerable vaccinated. I don't fully agree with a lot of the measures they have imposed and their vaccine rollout leaves a lot to be desired but they have spent far less time living with restrictions than we have and have less deaths to count too. "On balance" it is hard to argue against that being a better outcome.
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  #84603  
Old 24-08-2021, 11:58 PM
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If it were a storm you may have a point.

It isn't a storm. It is a globally ubiquitous pathogen that is easily spread and has animal reservoirs. We see from the continued rise in cases despite very strict measures there that this will become an increasingly desperate approach in the months / years ahead.

Given - as looks likely - naturally acquired immunity provides stronger protection than vaccine-induced immunity, it makes the 'weathering the storm' argument even more redundant. However, I appreciate that most do see it as something to hide from 'until this all blows over' and that's why their approach does seem to appeal to many who think full-time will be called at some point and we all tot up our scores.

Last edited by Windsor_Eagle; 25-08-2021 at 12:00 AM.
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  #84604  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Windsor_Eagle View Post
If it were a storm you may have a point.

It isn't a storm. It is a globally ubiquitous pathogen that is easily spread and has animal reservoirs. We see from the continued rise in cases despite very strict measures there that this will become an increasingly desperate approach in the months / years ahead.

Given - as looks likely - naturally acquired immunity provides stronger protection than vaccine-induced immunity, it makes the 'weathering the storm' argument even more redundant. However, I appreciate that most do see it as something to hide from 'until this all blows over' and that's why their approach does seem to appeal to many who think full-time will be called at some point and we all tot up our scores.
There is no full time or scores to tot up, you do the best you can. I don't think 150,000 deaths and huge economic problems is the best we could have achieved.
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  #84605  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Windsor_Eagle View Post
Not to pour over the excess deaths calculations again - but the point about China was in relation to Australia. They've gone full metal authoritarian. The short-sightedness of the strategy of attempting to hide from COVID is starting to display itself. In pointing that out, I was countered with the 'ah, but they've had a lot less deaths than us'.

That is what I was responding to as a comparison with China-esque response of hard authoritarianism. They're locked in a perennial position until they decide to accept the virus will enter Australia and then they'll no doubt get a pretty hefty wedge of deaths.

It's been argued for quite some time now that keeping COVID largely out of your country is one thing but when it is a global issue, what you do is delay your outcome rather than avoid it. However, that does not account for all the collateral harms and the serious dial shift in the publics relationship with the state.

Those framing civil liberties as a fringe and frivolous concern really do not appreciate the complacency of that position. Alas, the pandemic is not only something that should be judged and analysed through the lens of public health but even if we do view it through just that lens, there are no real winners and losers in this - just a range of different trade offs. What is perhaps more judgement worthy is whether different countries have pulled together a coherent and sustainable strategy.
Youíre seriously comparing China to Australia? Thatís a joke. Even more so as you say that China had lots of deaths and itís all covered up

Youíre desperate for Australia and New Zealand to have anything approaching our death rate to justify your belief that we should liberally let it spread to protect a certain kind of civil liberties (others youíre not so bothered about). Yet the fact remains the UKís deaths from Covid reasons magnitudes higher. The vaccines may well keep it that way.

You are yet to show data of the collateral damage in New Zealand or Australia. But claim it will be the case. You seem to want to be very stringent on some data but not others.
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  #84606  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:07 AM
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I agree. I'm not lauding our approach. I do think, though, that the years of life lost by the measures enacted will probably exceed the years of life lost directly from COVID but that is not a lens that many will view it from because those numbers are more abstract.

As I say, there's no winners or losers - there are trade offs. However, going into the next couple of years I think that places like the UK may feel that the upsides of our trade-offs emerge more clearly as other places once held up as exemplars start to see the downsides of their trade-offs take centre stage.
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  #84607  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:09 AM
Hpalace Hpalace is offline
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Originally Posted by Windsor_Eagle View Post
They seem pretty far down the rabbit-hole complete with marking 'plagued' houses; euthanising animals rather than re-patriating them with their owners; locking people in their apartment blocks and turning off the air-conditioning and using tear-gas and rubber bullets on protesters.

I don't think comparisons with China at this stage are a million miles off even if they may still be a league or two below CCP.
Locking down apartment blocks for a fortnight as part of test and trace is not comparable with what China did to regions and cities.

Tear gas and rubber bullets on their own citizens? Thatís totally barbaric and uncivilised I agree. Shame most residents of the uk turned a blind eye when the government authorised it on their own citizens (albeit a while ago). Rubber bullets were replaced with plastic ones but rubber ones were used until 2005 in NI. In 2019 the met tripled their budget for plastic bullets.

Iíd love your world of happy protest. I really would. Images of police brutality against the banning of peaceful protest this year, in the uk, make me believe you live in a different country to The one I do. Iíd like to live in your version of reality.
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  #84608  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:12 AM
Hpalace Hpalace is offline
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Originally Posted by Windsor_Eagle View Post
If it were a storm you may have a point.

It isn't a storm. It is a globally ubiquitous pathogen that is easily spread and has animal reservoirs. We see from the continued rise in cases despite very strict measures there that this will become an increasingly desperate approach in the months / years ahead.

Given - as looks likely - naturally acquired immunity provides stronger protection than vaccine-induced immunity, it makes the 'weathering the storm' argument even more redundant. However, I appreciate that most do see it as something to hide from 'until this all blows over' and that's why their approach does seem to appeal to many who think full-time will be called at some point and we all tot up our scores.
The Spanish flu was a storm. A long one. Iíll have to try to remember where I read that the waves of the storm lasted several years subsiding with each wave but as there was no testing etc obviously it canít be proved definitively.

Australia did well though and that was a much worse pandemic.
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  #84609  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:13 AM
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Youíre seriously comparing China to Australia? Thatís a joke. Even more so as you say that China had lots of deaths and itís all covered up

Youíre desperate for Australia and New Zealand to have anything approaching our death rate to justify your belief that we should liberally let it spread to protect a certain kind of civil liberties (others youíre not so bothered about). Yet the fact remains the UKís deaths from Covid reasons magnitudes higher. The vaccines may well keep it that way.

You are yet to show data of the collateral damage in New Zealand or Australia. But claim it will be the case. You seem to want to be very stringent on some data but not others.
I am comparing them from the point of view of huge authoritarianism in the past 2 years, yes. I trust the Australian numbers more than China and don't think they're playing international propaganda games like China may well have been but in terms of being happy to crush civil liberties and develop a large, central authority to which there can be no tolerated dissent - yep, they do (sadly) compare much more than I ever dreamed possible.

You might think that if COVID deaths are low that little else is of any value / relevance but I do genuinely hold concerns that there may be some serious longer-term shift in the public-authority relationship there and I don't think the sort of discourse that leads to winds up in a good place.
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  #84610  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:17 AM
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The Spanish flu was a storm. A long one. Iíll have to try to remember where I read that the waves of the storm lasted several years subsiding with each wave but as there was no testing etc obviously it canít be proved definitively.

Australia did well though and that was a much worse pandemic.
I suspect before international flight, sealing itself off was not as much a policy decision as a reality of their existence. That said, H1N1 evidently made its way through the Australian population over the subsequent 100 years.
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  #84611  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:17 AM
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I am comparing them from the point of view of huge authoritarianism in the past 2 years, yes. I trust the Australian numbers more than China and don't think they're playing international propaganda games like China may well have been but in terms of being happy to crush civil liberties and develop a large, central authority to which there can be no tolerated dissent - yep, they do (sadly) compare much more than I ever dreamed possible.

You might think that if COVID deaths are low that little else is of any value / relevance but I do genuinely hold concerns that there may be some serious longer-term shift in the public-authority relationship there and I don't think the sort of discourse that leads to winds up in a good place.
Yes, it is important we avoid authoritarian governments.

No, Australia is not comparable to China.
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  #84612  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:22 AM
Hpalace Hpalace is offline
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I suspect before international flight, sealing itself off was not as much a policy decision as a reality of their existence. That said, H1N1 evidently made its way through the Australian population over the subsequent 100 years.
Yes. When it had (thankfully) mutated to be more virulent and less deadly. Or (as there were no vaccinations) logically you would have seen lots of dead Australians, which we didnít.
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  #84613  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:23 AM
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Locking down apartment blocks for a fortnight as part of test and trace is not comparable with what China did to regions and cities.

Tear gas and rubber bullets on their own citizens? Thatís totally barbaric and uncivilised I agree. Shame most residents of the uk turned a blind eye when the government authorised it on their own citizens (albeit a while ago). Rubber bullets were replaced with plastic ones but rubber ones were used until 2005 in NI. In 2019 the met tripled their budget for plastic bullets.

Iíd love your world of happy protest. I really would. Images of police brutality against the banning of peaceful protest this year, in the uk, make me believe you live in a different country to The one I do. Iíd like to live in your version of reality.
Pretty much all of the western world has moved in a worrying direction re: authoritarianism in my opinion. I just feel that some have gone further than others and I find it more than a little unnerving especially when it very much remains to be seen if it provides any material benefit in the long run.
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  #84614  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:26 AM
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Pretty much all of the western world has moved in a worrying direction re: authoritarianism in my opinion. I just feel that some have gone further than others and I find it more than a little unnerving especially when it very much remains to be seen if it provides any material benefit in the long run.
There were worrying trends way before covid, some of our responses to terrorism are extremely concerning. China has millions of people in concentration camps. It is not a fair comparison.
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  #84615  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:33 AM
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Yes. When it had (thankfully) mutated to be more virulent and less deadly. Or (as there were no vaccinations) logically you would have seen lots of dead Australians, which we didnít.
Just had a quick look and around 2 million Australians out of a population of 5 million are believed to have had Spanish flu. Perhaps it may have lost a bit of virulence when it got there but it is difficult to get clear epidemiological pictures from then.
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  #84616  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Windsor_Eagle View Post
Pretty much all of the western world has moved in a worrying direction re: authoritarianism in my opinion. I just feel that some have gone further than others and I find it more than a little unnerving especially when it very much remains to be seen if it provides any material benefit in the long run.
I do agree with you but a little part of me wants to point out that you voted for it. The worrying authoritarianism isnít measures locked in time (by law) and by democracies to tackle a pandemic. Itís democracies legislating against peaceful protest.

With the world burning and flooding itís a worrying trend that we persist with the ď**** itĒ mentality. I certainly wonít put my vote in the box of a candidate whoís party is against peaceful protest when the world is on fire.
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  #84617  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:36 AM
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There were worrying trends way before covid, some of our responses to terrorism are extremely concerning. China has millions of people in concentration camps. It is not a fair comparison.
I am not saying that Australia is just like the CCP in all matters! The original statement was a 'China-like response' to COVID-19.

I do think, of all the western democracies, that Australia (and possibly NZ) have emulated severe lockdowns bordering on human rights violations more than any other. I don't think that is an unfair comment. That doesn't mean I think that Australia has Uighur muslim concentration camps in Canberra!
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  #84618  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:37 AM
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Just had a quick look and around 2 million Australians out of a population of 5 million are believed to have had Spanish flu. Perhaps it may have lost a bit of virulence when it got there but it is difficult to get clear epidemiological pictures from then.
Yep itís the deaths which are a lot lower than, say the uk, per head.
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  #84619  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:40 AM
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I do agree with you but a little part of me wants to point out that you voted for it. The worrying authoritarianism isnít measures locked in time (by law) and by democracies to tackle a pandemic. Itís democracies legislating against peaceful protest.

With the world burning and flooding itís a worrying trend that we persist with the ď**** itĒ mentality. I certainly wonít put my vote in the box of a candidate whoís party is against peaceful protest when the world is on fire.
Do you think any voters who went to the polls in December 2019 voted for the policies and COVID legislation that have been enacted this past 18 months?
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  #84620  
Old 25-08-2021, 12:41 AM
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I am not saying that Australia is just like the CCP in all matters! The original statement was a 'China-like response' to COVID-19.

I do think, of all the western democracies, that Australia (and possibly NZ) have emulated severe lockdowns bordering on human rights violations more than any other. I don't think that is an unfair comment. That doesn't mean I think that Australia has Uighur muslim concentration camps in Canberra!
Fair!
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