Coronavirus

[917L]

Originally Posted by ANDYEAGLE

651 recorded deaths from covid yesterday. Looks like deaths are going through the roof.
Hardly mentioned at all anywhere. Has to be a worry.

From?

[ANDYEAGLE]

Originally Posted by 917L

From?

Guardian

[Philipw]

Originally Posted by congress

in this country we have let it slack in regards to prevention, watching a lot of sport from Europe, most of the countries with spectators indoors everyone is wearing masks in the crowd.

You’re right on masks across Europe versus UK. However, jury out as to the effectiveness in non clinical settings. Latest comparative case data seems to show UK cases per head of population lower than most of Europe (half of France and Germany), despite still having the highest testing rate (bar Italy, Austria and Greece)

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[917L]

Originally Posted by ANDYEAGLE

Guardian

I meant From Covid

Or do you mean died within 28 days of a Positive Covid test, which is an entirely different thing

[Blind_Eagle]

Originally Posted by Blind_Eagle

I can’t get my head around the current NHS policy towards covid. Two months ago I had an operation and was required to have a test two days before the op. Since then I’ve been attending the same hospital twice a week but with no requirement to take a subsequent test at all.

My wife started her course of radiotherapy last week and, like me, was required to take a covid test two days before the first day of treatment. She is now scheduled to attend every three days for the next couple of weeks but again no further tests are required.

What’s the point of doing the initial test and then not bothering for future appointments spread over several weeks? It makes absolutely no sense to me at all.

To add to this, my wife’s next radiotherapy session was scheduled for tomorrow afternoon but it’s now been brought forward to tomorrow morning as all the afternoon slots have now been dedicated to those poor sods who have cancer and covid.

We’ve absolutely no problem whatsoever with the change, covid is no reason to stop treating cancer sufferers. But it does reinforce my question as to why the NHS demand a covid test before one’s first operation and then don’t bother asking for another however long your hospital treatment takes.

It makes absolutely no sense at all to me, maybe Gonzo could explain what’s going on?

[Hpalace]

Originally Posted by 917L

I meant From Covid

Or do you mean died within 28 days of a Positive Covid test, which is an entirely different thing

It’s only an entirely different thing for the purposes of trying to downtalk covid. People died from pneumonia as the primary cause of death pre 2020 when in fact it was the cancer that debilitated their body enough to let pneumonia do it’s job. Individuals questioned this occasionally but everyone accepted that the doctors were right to put the causes (multiple often) of death on the death certificate.

Just because we do it for covid now as well doesn’t mean it’s not right.

[917L]

Originally Posted by Hpalace

It’s only an entirely different thing for the purposes of trying to downtalk covid. People died from pneumonia as the primary cause of death pre 2020 when in fact it was the cancer that debilitated their body enough to let pneumonia do it’s job. Individuals questioned this occasionally but everyone accepted that the doctors were right to put the causes (multiple often) of death on the death certificate.

Just because we do it for covid now as well doesn’t mean it’s not right.

I’m not trying to talk down anything, but the stats are complete nonsense

Dying with Covid is not the same as dying from it (which you of course know and acknowledge)

In the majority of cases where people die with Covid, they are not admitted to hospital because of illness caused by Covid, in currently a large % of those won’t even know they have Covid until tested in ED

It’s not comparable to your Pneumonia analogy at all

[Norwich_Eagle]

I would also like to know at what point do people get Covid while in Hospital. Do they arrive with it as well as something else, or do they go into Hospital with something else and subsequently pick it up.

[Hpalace]

Originally Posted by 917L

I’m not trying to talk down anything, but the stats are complete nonsense

Dying with Covid is not the same as dying from it (which you of course know and acknowledge)

In the majority of cases where people die with Covid, they are not admitted to hospital because of illness caused by Covid, in currently a large % of those won’t even know they have Covid until tested in ED

It’s not comparable to your Pneumonia analogy at all

It really is. Pre 2020 most people put on palliative care didn’t have pneumonia. Pneumonia still made their death certificate. No one particularly cared if they died with or of pneumonia. They were more concerned by the dead person.

Unless you are suggesting doctors are in and active players in some kind of conspiracy theory to artificially ‘up the numbers’; I would suggest doctors are best placed to judge whether a flooding of the lungs caused death or cancer (like we always have done).

[Hpalace]

Originally Posted by Norwich_Eagle

I would also like to know at what point do people get Covid while in Hospital. Do they arrive with it as well as something else, or do they go into Hospital with something else and subsequently pick it up.

A combination of both like every other respiratory illness.

[LSEagle]

Originally Posted by Hpalace

It really is. Pre 2020 most people put on palliative care didn’t have pneumonia. Pneumonia still made their death certificate. No one particularly cared if they died with or of pneumonia. They were more concerned by the dead person.

So doesn't that suggest we should be looking at total excess deaths rather than a subset where Covid may or may not have been the primary cause?

[Hpalace]

Originally Posted by LSEagle

So doesn't that suggest we should be looking at total excess deaths rather than a subset where Covid may or may not have been the primary cause?

Both I would imagine.

Although I’m not really sure what’s going on there. Chatting to a funeral director on Tuesday he is busier than he has ever been before and is buying a fleet on new Bentleys on the back of the windfall. Through my work I can see an upturn in probates compared to previous years by circa 30%. Sure that’s anecdotal but company wide and covering the south East of London it’s also a bit statistical. It bears no resemblance at all to the overall stats so quite confusing really.

[kolinkins]

Originally Posted by Hpalace

It really is. Pre 2020 most people put on palliative care didn’t have pneumonia. Pneumonia still made their death certificate. No one particularly cared if they died with or of pneumonia. They were more concerned by the dead person.

Unless you are suggesting doctors are in and active players in some kind of conspiracy theory to artificially ‘up the numbers’; I would suggest doctors are best placed to judge whether a flooding of the lungs caused death or cancer (like we always have done).

It is not really about that. It is more that how people are actually dying is what should shape public health policy. If people are not dying with Covid as the primary cause, then that should shape a different reaction to 100s of people a day dying just because of Covid

[Hpalace]

Originally Posted by kolinkins

It is not really about that. It is more that how people are actually dying is what should shape public health policy. If people are not dying with Covid as the primary cause, then that should shape a different reaction to 100s of people a day dying just because of Covid

The primary cause on a lot of cancer victims death certificates was pneumonia. A thankfull and relatively painless end to the suffering. Pneumonia deaths have plummeted, covid deaths have rocketed. It’s fairly obvious what’s going on. In that sense. I still think doctors are the best equipped to decide primary and secondary causes of death and I really don’t think they are deliberately manipulating the figures.

[kolinkins]

Originally Posted by Hpalace

The primary cause on a lot of cancer victims death certificates was pneumonia. A thankfull and relatively painless end to the suffering. Pneumonia deaths have plummeted, covid deaths have rocketed. It’s fairly obvious what’s going on. In that sense. I still think doctors are the best equipped to decide primary and secondary causes of death and I really don’t think they are deliberately manipulating the figures.

I didn't say they were. But if we are going to make public health policy on the back of Covid, it is important detail.

[Hpalace]

Originally Posted by kolinkins

I didn't say they were. But if we are going to make public health policy on the back of Covid, it is important detail.

No more than it is for pneumonia which we also make public health policy about. The doctor ultimately has to decide (in their opinion) what was the primary cause of death and what were the secondary causes. More often than not the secondary causes led to a vulnerability to the primary. This has always been the case and why we have humongous research and investment into cancer and limited research into pneumonia. Health policy is more concerned by what caused the vulnerability than the primary cause.

[Jukesy]

Originally Posted by ANDYEAGLE

651 recorded deaths from covid yesterday. Looks like deaths are going through the roof.
Hardly mentioned at all anywhere. Has to be a worry.

The numbers are inflated as several missed updates are being randomly added.

Admissions continue to fall which is the only real barometer.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by ANDYEAGLE

651 recorded deaths from covid yesterday. Looks like deaths are going through the roof.
Hardly mentioned at all anywhere. Has to be a worry.

I was wondering the same, but the 651 figure, which I also saw, seems to have been reapportioned now, and the death figures seem to have resumed their downward trend

[dogstar721]

Originally Posted by Hpalace

It’s only an entirely different thing for the purposes of trying to downtalk covid. People died from pneumonia as the primary cause of death pre 2020 when in fact it was the cancer that debilitated their body enough to let pneumonia do it’s job. Individuals questioned this occasionally but everyone accepted that the doctors were right to put the causes (multiple often) of death on the death certificate.

Just because we do it for covid now as well doesn’t mean it’s not right.

I think that's true in some cases, it's an attempt to deflect by pointing at specific outliers and presenting them as normal.

The simple reality is that they're near enough the same, and as a system of classification in a reliable method used in determine likely deaths. The reality of having to conduct 651 autopsies a day to establish certainty is impossible. As the vast majority of covid deaths are hospital based, it's reliable with acceptable statistical significance.

There just isn't a better method by which to determine Covid deaths outside of hospital diagnosis, in a pandemic of magnitude, without investigating each individual case.

There is definitely a section of society who bizarrely will use any arguments to advance their agenda that it's all a ruse, and would use any means to validate their paranoia. They also happily point a finger of aha at a diagnosis by a doctor without tests to validate their conspiracy hypothesis.

And ignore the fact that it also is compensated by those who did of Covid, without a test of positive in the preceding 28 days.

[dogstar721]

Originally Posted by Jukesy

The numbers are inflated as several missed updates are being randomly added.

Admissions continue to fall which is the only real barometer.

Admissions and deaths are both significant, it's just measuring them on a single day isn't reliable. You really need to look at the trend analysis over time, to allow for delays in data submission.

They're not randomly inserted, it's just that reporting in real time isn't viable. It doesn't really matter if they died last week, or yesterday, if you study the trend pattern rather than isolated date figures. They're still dead, and in scope.

To be accurate you measure between key determined baselines.