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  #94481  
Old 14-04-2022, 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by dogstar721 View Post
Admissions and deaths are both significant, it's just measuring them on a single day isn't reliable. You really need to look at the trend analysis over time, to allow for delays in data submission.

They're not randomly inserted, it's just that reporting in real time isn't viable. It doesn't really matter if they died last week, or yesterday, if you study the trend pattern rather than isolated date figures. They're still dead, and in scope.

To be accurate you measure between key determined baselines.
Which is why i said the "trend" in admissions is downward.
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  #94482  
Old 14-04-2022, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Blind_Eagle View Post
To add to this, my wifeís next radiotherapy session was scheduled for tomorrow afternoon but itís now been brought forward to tomorrow morning as all the afternoon slots have now been dedicated to those poor sods who have cancer and covid.

Weíve absolutely no problem whatsoever with the change, covid is no reason to stop treating cancer sufferers. But it does reinforce my question as to why the NHS demand a covid test before oneís first operation and then donít bother asking for another however long your hospital treatment takes.

It makes absolutely no sense at all to me, maybe Gonzo could explain whatís going on?
I appreciate what you're saying, but I think you're expecting a standard approach across the NHS and/or consistency in the same hospital over time. In my experience, neither is a given, particularly when Covid is involved.

Two months is a long time in NHS terms, particularly when you have had the removal of all restrictions in England that we've had over the past few months.
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  #94483  
Old 14-04-2022, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by dogstar721 View Post
Admissions and deaths are both significant, it's just measuring them on a single day isn't reliable. You really need to look at the trend analysis over time, to allow for delays in data submission.

They're not randomly inserted, it's just that reporting in real time isn't viable. It doesn't really matter if they died last week, or yesterday, if you study the trend pattern rather than isolated date figures. They're still dead, and in scope.

To be accurate you measure between key determined baselines.
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  #94484  
Old 15-04-2022, 01:13 PM
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People in the richest city in one of the world's biggest economies suffering food and medical shortages because of lockdowns. And to think we took our inspiration from China in trying to beat Covid.

As far as I'm concerned all those lockdown fanatics can emigrate to China and leave the rest of us to enjoy living in a free country. I would rather live in a country that has deaths from (or more likely with) Covid than in a country that imposes that sort of authoritarianism.

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  #94485  
Old 15-04-2022, 01:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Mr Mojo Risin View Post
People in the richest city in one of the world's biggest economies suffering food and medical shortages because of lockdowns. And to think we took our inspiration from China in trying to beat Covid.

As far as I'm concerned all those lockdown fanatics can emigrate to China and leave the rest of us to enjoy living in a free country. I would rather live in a country that has deaths from (or more likely with) Covid than in a country that imposes that sort of authoritarianism.

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And it doesn't seem to be working either, they had record cases in Shanghai yesterday (albeit still at a low number)
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  #94486  
Old 15-04-2022, 02:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Mr Mojo Risin View Post
People in the richest city in one of the world's biggest economies suffering food and medical shortages because of lockdowns. And to think we took our inspiration from China in trying to beat Covid.

As far as I'm concerned all those lockdown fanatics can emigrate to China and leave the rest of us to enjoy living in a free country. I would rather live in a country that has deaths from (or more likely with) Covid than in a country that imposes that sort of authoritarianism.

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Massive whataboutary, as if the only options are China... You can have covid restrictions without authoritarianism. As long as restrictions serve the needs of social function, are reasonable and effective.
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  #94487  
Old 15-04-2022, 02:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Mojo Risin View Post
People in the richest city in one of the world's biggest economies suffering food and medical shortages because of lockdowns. And to think we took our inspiration from China in trying to beat Covid.

As far as I'm concerned all those lockdown fanatics can emigrate to China and leave the rest of us to enjoy living in a free country. I would rather live in a country that has deaths from (or more likely with) Covid than in a country that imposes that sort of authoritarianism.

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Our lockdowns looked absolutely nothing like chinaís. Itís like comparing a banana to a chicken. We also did not aim to beat covid. We aimed to stop the NHs from being overwhelmed.
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  #94488  
Old 15-04-2022, 02:41 PM
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Chicken is high in calories and banana per gram has 53% less calories than chicken - chicken has 189 calories per 100 grams and banana has 89 calories.


For macronutrient ratios, banana is much lighter in protein, much heavier in carbs and much lighter in fat compared to chicken per calorie.
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  #94489  
Old 15-04-2022, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by LSEagle View Post
So doesn't that suggest we should be looking at total excess deaths rather than a subset where Covid may or may not have been the primary cause?
We do, but you can't just compare months sily, it's usually calculated over longer periods. It gets a bit problematic though where to have say a lockdown to just look at average death rates because a lockdown will Aaso decrease other deaths (Suicide and RTA being good examples that may increase or decrease as a result of a social change).

Epidemiology gets quite complex very quickly when you factor in major social variables you change.

So a death rate average isn't immediately reliable either, you need to look at trends in Cause of Deaths. Just shutting the pubs probably resulted in a large decrease in assault, but a ruse in domestic violence.

Also people became less susceptible to other contagious diseases, as a result of a quarantine effect, because lockdown s would affect all contagious disease, and those combined could distort the average death rate.

None of this is really as easy as just comparing averages.
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  #94490  
Old 15-04-2022, 02:52 PM
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Chicken and banana salads all round.
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  #94491  
Old 15-04-2022, 03:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maz View Post
Chicken is high in calories and banana per gram has 53% less calories than chicken - chicken has 189 calories per 100 grams and banana has 89 calories.


For macronutrient ratios, banana is much lighter in protein, much heavier in carbs and much lighter in fat compared to chicken per calorie.
Not many people know this, but humans share 50% of our DNA with a banana.
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  #94492  
Old 15-04-2022, 03:03 PM
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Weird experience for us Scotland based folk. Took the little-un down to Whitely Bay for an overnight stay, and just got a shock to go into public places seeing no one else with a mask on. Actually ended up taking mine off as I felt everyone was staring. Peer group pressure - it’s a bastard.
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  #94493  
Old 15-04-2022, 03:30 PM
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Massive whataboutary, as if the only options are China... You can have covid restrictions without authoritarianism. As long as restrictions serve the needs of social function, are reasonable and effective.
But are restrictions short of a hard lockdown particularly effective? The evidence from across Europe and the US doesn't suggest that they are.
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  #94494  
Old 15-04-2022, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by dogstar721 View Post
We do, but you can't just compare months sily, it's usually calculated over longer periods. It gets a bit problematic though where to have say a lockdown to just look at average death rates because a lockdown will Aaso decrease other deaths (Suicide and RTA being good examples that may increase or decrease as a result of a social change).

Epidemiology gets quite complex very quickly when you factor in major social variables you change.

So a death rate average isn't immediately reliable either, you need to look at trends in Cause of Deaths. Just shutting the pubs probably resulted in a large decrease in assault, but a ruse in domestic violence.

Also people became less susceptible to other contagious diseases, as a result of a quarantine effect, because lockdown s would affect all contagious disease, and those combined could distort the average death rate.

None of this is really as easy as just comparing averages.
I was reading that the suicide rate did not actually go up in 2020. Birth rate actually went down in 2021 despite lots of people being forced together for a long period. I guess there would have been less accidental one night stand pregnancies.
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  #94495  
Old 15-04-2022, 04:47 PM
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Both I would imagine.

Although Iím not really sure whatís going on there. Chatting to a funeral director on Tuesday he is busier than he has ever been before and is buying a fleet on new Bentleys on the back of the windfall. Through my work I can see an upturn in probates compared to previous years by circa 30%. Sure thatís anecdotal but company wide and covering the south East of London itís also a bit statistical. It bears no resemblance at all to the overall stats so quite confusing really.
Can see why the funeral director has had a windfall over the past 2 years - but am a bit surprised he is that busy now. Like you I think, I'm a bit puzzled by the current excess deaths stats (given covid death numbers still quite high) but care home deaths normally correlate pretty closely to overall funeral activity - and they are currently running slightly below average.
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  #94496  
Old 15-04-2022, 05:04 PM
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Weird experience for us Scotland based folk. Took the little-un down to Whitely Bay for an overnight stay, and just got a shock to go into public places seeing no one else with a mask on. Actually ended up taking mine off as I felt everyone was staring. Peer group pressure - itís a bastard.
Don't knock it, it's been a huge factor in my mask wearing (or not wearing)... And I know I'm a sheep.
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  #94497  
Old 15-04-2022, 05:14 PM
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Don't knock it, it's been a huge factor in my mask wearing (or not wearing)... And I know I'm a sheep.
Chile released us from mask wearing outside as of this week for the first time since the start, unless in a crowded area. Venturing inside e.g. Malls, shops etc still needs a mask.

I went to the supermarket this morning... still 100% mask usage outside. Not sure if that's down to people not knowing the new regs, pure habit of mask wearing, or personal decision.
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Old 15-04-2022, 05:30 PM
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Chile released us from mask wearing outside as of this week for the first time since the start, unless in a crowded area. Venturing inside e.g. Malls, shops etc still needs a mask.

I went to the supermarket this morning... still 100% mask usage outside. Not sure if that's down to people not knowing the new regs, pure habit of mask wearing, or personal decision.
Same here basically, except outdoors has been no-mask-requirement for a while and maybe 4 to 6 weeks back they removed the indoors requirement. (I believe public transport still requires mask).

I would say in stores like supermarkets, it is about 75% off/25% on (both staff and customers). It really is a personal choice at this time, and if everyone can accept that it makes life a lot easier.
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Old 15-04-2022, 05:37 PM
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Chile released us from mask wearing outside as of this week for the first time since the start, unless in a crowded area. Venturing inside e.g. Malls, shops etc still needs a mask.

I went to the supermarket this morning... still 100% mask usage outside. Not sure if that's down to people not knowing the new regs, pure habit of mask wearing, or personal decision.
Out of interest, how do you think it has worked compared to other South American countries - or did they all have similar policies? When you look at excess deaths (probably being a more accurate indicator than covid designated deaths), Chile looks worse than most of Europe (including UK) but better than places like Peru? Vaccination rates may of course be a factor also but thought Chile been relatively good on that?
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Old 15-04-2022, 05:48 PM
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Out of interest, how do you think it has worked compared to other South American countries - or did they all have similar policies? When you look at excess deaths (probably being a more accurate indicator than covid designated deaths), Chile looks worse than most of Europe (including UK) but better than places like Peru? Vaccination rates may of course be a factor also but thought Chile been relatively good on that?
I think Chile's (and SAM's in general) high levels of poverty and poor education are a bigger factor than anything in excess deaths. That is, we have a private health system here. If you're not insured you're in the shit. Accordingly it's not so good to compare countries of such differing levels of development (e.g. Chile with the EU).
As for vaccinations, Chile, the last time I saw the stats a couple of weeks ago, is the most advanced with 80 odd% being fully vaccinated (2 shots) and a significant percentage (IIRC 65%) with booster. We're half way through, age group-wise, with the 2nd booster program (I had my 4th shot 2 weeks ago).
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