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  #93481  
Old 19-01-2022, 09:24 PM
Philipw Philipw is offline
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Originally Posted by El Aguila View Post
It's three times Spain's, which is why it surprised me. Like you, I don't really pay attention.
The high current UK deaths has surprised me too, particularly given flat ICU numbers and fairly low care home deaths. The only way i can reconcile it is that hospitals are reporting that circa 35%+ of covid patients are ‘with’ as opposed to ‘of’ covid, ie ‘real’ (if thats the right phrase) covid deaths currently being reported may be quite a lot lower than the official numbers. So, when comparing with other countries, i guess it depends on whether they have the same 28 day protocol.
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  #93482  
Old 19-01-2022, 09:31 PM
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  #93483  
Old 19-01-2022, 09:47 PM
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Originally Posted by PalaceForever View Post
Misinformation being spread as fact on social media is a huge problem in my opinion. I don’t know why the government don’t get a bit more savvy with this - a department who challenge misinformation with facts. If Bob posts in the comments of a news article on Facebook that the vaccines don’t work, he is challenged via a reply with evidence showing they do work. There are a lot of impressionable people who are swayed by what they read online, regardless of truth.
Really massive issue. The problem is people exist in bubbles on SM. So it self perpetuates itself. And Government info by its nature will not be trusted. So how to actually counter all this bollocks? Truly difficult. They will pounce on a single video yet ignore 1000 others.
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  #93484  
Old 19-01-2022, 11:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Philipw View Post
The high current UK deaths has surprised me too, particularly given flat ICU numbers and fairly low care home deaths. The only way i can reconcile it is that hospitals are reporting that circa 35%+ of covid patients are ‘with’ as opposed to ‘of’ covid, ie ‘real’ (if thats the right phrase) covid deaths currently being reported may be quite a lot lower than the official numbers. So, when comparing with other countries, i guess it depends on whether they have the same 28 day protocol.
The high number of deaths is curious. Even if we assume 50% of the deaths are incidental, the MV beds are still low compared to what we saw with a similar number of deaths of Delta. Less patients seem to need oxygen, so I can only assume both are because Omicron supposedly is much less likely to affect the lungs - which begs the question, how are people dying of Omicron? Is it that just a higher proportion of those who end up being ventilated go on to die, or is it more deaths from cytokine storm, clots/heart attacks, or something else?

I also thought it was interesting that the number of COVID deaths in South Africa has been continuing to rise, even though cases peaked there on 12th December, which maybe points to a longer time between infection and death, so I wouldn't be surprised to see UK deaths stay high for longer than expected.
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  #93485  
Old 19-01-2022, 11:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Philipw View Post
The high current UK deaths has surprised me too, particularly given flat ICU numbers and fairly low care home deaths. The only way i can reconcile it is that hospitals are reporting that circa 35%+ of covid patients are ‘with’ as opposed to ‘of’ covid, ie ‘real’ (if thats the right phrase) covid deaths currently being reported may be quite a lot lower than the official numbers. So, when comparing with other countries, i guess it depends on whether they have the same 28 day protocol.
Also is it high or is the mortality rate roughly where it should be and covid is supplementing the normal pneumonia and flu deaths this time of year. When we were in the late 100s/1000s it was clearly causing excess death.

I don’t know the answer to this by the way. Like pneumonia and flu covid will take the weak from now on though. It would be interesting to know if the three combined are killing more people or the same volume of people.

On a side note covid really does seem to have become dominant over flu (and perhaps pneumonia).
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  #93486  
Old 20-01-2022, 05:41 AM
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Also is it high or is the mortality rate roughly where it should be and covid is supplementing the normal pneumonia and flu deaths this time of year. When we were in the late 100s/1000s it was clearly causing excess death.
The ONS only goes up to the 1st week of the year at the moment but that shows significantly lower deaths than average for that week. However I think death registration can be a bit odd at the start of the new year (due to BHs etc) so you'd want to see a couple more weeks from January to understand the current trend.

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In the week ending 7 January 2022 (Week 1), 12,262 deaths were registered in England and Wales; this was 3,785 more deaths than the previous week (Week 52 2021), which is partly because of the bank holidays in Week 52, and 7.8% below the five-year average (1,036 fewer deaths).
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Winter diseases generally pick off the most vulnerable in society and I imagine we would expect to have fewer such people compared to previous years given Covid deaths. From that perspective I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with lower than average excess deaths this winter.

Last edited by LSEagle; 20-01-2022 at 06:48 AM. Reason: additional thoughts
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  #93487  
Old 20-01-2022, 06:56 AM
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IMO, they've jumped the gun, all in the name of being popular and deflecting from Johnson's incompetence.
I very much agree.
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  #93488  
Old 20-01-2022, 07:00 AM
biggus mickus biggus mickus is offline
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I don't know if anyone is in the same boat as me, but here goes.

I know of four people that have died DIRECTLY of covid. In 63 years on this planet, I have never known anybody die of influenza.
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  #93489  
Old 20-01-2022, 07:05 AM
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Originally Posted by LSEagle View Post
The ONS only goes up to the 1st week of the year at the moment but that shows significantly lower deaths than average for that week. However I think death registration can be a bit odd at the start of the new year (due to BHs etc) so you'd want to see a couple more weeks from January to understand the current trend.



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Winter diseases generally pick off the most vulnerable in society and I imagine we would expect to have fewer such people compared to previous years given Covid deaths. From that perspective I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with lower than average excess deaths this winter.
You make a very fair point. Rather than looking at excess deaths on a year to year basis it would be interesting to lump in to 2 or 5 year bands.
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  #93490  
Old 20-01-2022, 07:09 AM
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Fair enough, if they are trying to get people back to work again but do away with facemasks (maybe a pain in the backside but hardly that inconvenient)
I think you're wearing it wrong.
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  #93491  
Old 20-01-2022, 07:10 AM
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Is it possible for excess deaths to be lower than average?
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  #93492  
Old 20-01-2022, 07:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
Also is it high or is the mortality rate roughly where it should be and covid is supplementing the normal pneumonia and flu deaths this time of year. When we were in the late 100s/1000s it was clearly causing excess death.

I don’t know the answer to this by the way. Like pneumonia and flu covid will take the weak from now on though. It would be interesting to know if the three combined are killing more people or the same volume of people.

On a side note covid really does seem to have become dominant over flu (and perhaps pneumonia).
You’re certainly right in that flu hospitalisations are next to non existent at the moment, and that the limited data i saw a couple of weeks ago indicated that the number of occupied respiratory beds is no more than a normal year. Other than it being a massive coincidence, it would therefore suggest that covid has defeated the influenza virus and/or the incidental covid deaths are even higher than 35%, with covid secondary in a high proportion of other respiratory (and perhaps other) illnesses. Its not just covid MV beds numbers are dropping, covid designated ICU beds (not just MV beds) are dropping at a similar rate too.

Last edited by Philipw; 20-01-2022 at 08:10 AM.
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  #93493  
Old 20-01-2022, 07:43 AM
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Originally Posted by LSEagle View Post
The ONS only goes up to the 1st week of the year at the moment but that shows significantly lower deaths than average for that week. However I think death registration can be a bit odd at the start of the new year (due to BHs etc) so you'd want to see a couple more weeks from January to understand the current trend.



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Winter diseases generally pick off the most vulnerable in society and I imagine we would expect to have fewer such people compared to previous years given Covid deaths. From that perspective I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with lower than average excess deaths this winter.


There is definitely some validity to this - and it played a part in the negative excess deaths last spring/summer. However this may be offset by a number of deaths now happening due to poor medical care during the pandemic.
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  #93494  
Old 20-01-2022, 07:44 AM
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Is it possible for excess deaths to be lower than average?
No (obviously!)
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  #93495  
Old 20-01-2022, 07:50 AM
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No (obviously!)
Though if you were presenting figures on excess deaths over a period of time, it would be reasonable to show a negative number for any periods where there were fewer than average deaths.
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  #93496  
Old 20-01-2022, 07:57 AM
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While it would seem churlish to speak of a shortage of deaths.
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  #93497  
Old 20-01-2022, 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by biggus mickus View Post
I don't know if anyone is in the same boat as me, but here goes.

I know of four people that have died DIRECTLY of covid. In 63 years on this planet, I have never known anybody die of influenza.
‘DIRECTLY’ ?
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Last edited by Worksop Palace; 20-01-2022 at 08:01 AM.
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  #93498  
Old 20-01-2022, 08:01 AM
Philipw Philipw is offline
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Though if you were presenting figures on excess deaths over a period of time, it would be reasonable to show a negative number for any periods where there were fewer than average deaths.
In a a year of high excess deaths, you will almost certainly get weeks where the excess for that week (compared to the same week for the previous five years) is lower than the excess death rate for that year as whole. But think El Ag was making a different point - I think!
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Old 20-01-2022, 08:03 AM
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The fathers of two of my colleagues at work both died in one week of COVID, in May 2020 - one of them had significant comorbidities, as in, flu would have killed him (though probably not in May). I don’t know if it would have been classified as flu, in that case.
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Old 20-01-2022, 08:05 AM
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In a a year of high excess deaths, you will almost certainly get weeks where the excess for that week (compared to the same week for the previous five years) is lower than the excess death rate for that year as whole. But think El Ag was making a different point - I think!
Yes, I think we're in agreement. In essence, in a language sense, lower than average excess deaths makes no sense; but in a mathematical sense, negative excess deaths does.
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